Super

By Kenny Coinz – Marathon Money

The Battlefield: Super Micro Computer Stands at a Crossroads

Super Micro Computer, Inc. ($SMCI) has become one of the most polarizing stocks in the market. To some, it’s the next great AI infrastructure play, poised to ride the unstoppable artificial intelligence revolution into the stratosphere. To others, it’s a ticking time bomb, burdened by accounting scandals, regulatory scrutiny, and the kind of corporate governance red flags that can wipe out billions overnight.

The stage is set. On February 11, 2025, SMCI will report its Q2 earnings—an event that could send the stock soaring past $60 or collapsing below $25. If you think you’ve seen volatility before, brace yourself. This is a game where fortunes will be made or lost in an instant.

The question now is simple: Is SMCI the trade of the decade or a disaster waiting to happen?

The Bull Case: Why SMCI Could Be the Best Trade of 2025

1. AI Demand is a Juggernaut—And SMCI is at the Heart of It

Forget the noise for a second. AI infrastructure is the single most important trend in technology today, and SMCI builds the servers that power it all.

• Every hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Oracle) is throwing billions into AI.
• NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform is set to revolutionize AI computing, and SMCI is a key supplier of liquid-cooled AI data center servers that can handle the heat—literally.
• AI data center spending is expected to reach $500 billion—possibly even $1 trillion in the next few years, according to NVIDIA’s latest guidance.

This isn’t a passing trend. It’s an arms race. And SMCI is supplying the weapons.

2. Growth That’s Too Big to Ignore

No company posts these numbers unless they’re doing something right:

• 128% year-over-year revenue growth
• Exploding hyperscaler demand for AI infrastructure
• Aggressive expansion into liquid-cooled AI server solutions

SMCI is growing at warp speed. For long-term investors, it’s easy to make the case that this is still only the beginning.

3. Analyst Projections Show Explosive Upside

According to Zacks Research, analysts have an average price target of $49.56, with some estimates as high as $100 per share. The AI boom is just getting started, and if SMCI keeps executing, triple-digit prices aren’t out of the question.

If earnings on February 11 deliver strong results, expect the stock to explode.

The Bear Case: The Skeletons in SMCI’s Closet

1. The Hindenburg Report—Accounting Scandals and Financial Smoke

In August 2024, Hindenburg Research dropped a bombshell report accusing SMCI of:

• Accounting manipulation and financial misstatements
• Undisclosed related-party transactions
• Possible export control violations

At first, investors shrugged it off—after all, this is a company growing at triple-digit rates. But then, things got worse.

2. Ernst & Young Walked Away—And That’s a Red Flag

One of the biggest warning signs for any stock? When its auditor quits.

• Ernst & Young resigned as SMCI’s auditor, citing internal control issues and governance concerns.
• SMCI then delayed its annual report, further fueling speculation that something was wrong.

This wasn’t just an overreaction from the market. These were serious concerns that even institutions couldn’t ignore.

3. Nasdaq Delisting is a Real Risk

If SMCI fails to resolve its accounting issues, there is a genuine risk that the stock could be delisted from the Nasdaq. This wouldn’t just be a blow to investor confidence—it would be a death sentence for its stock price in the short term.

Even if delisting never happens, the fear alone is keeping big money away. Until SMCI cleans up its books, hedge funds and institutions will remain on the sidelines—and that limits upside potential.

February 11, 2025: The Moment of Truth

SMCI’s earnings report on February 11 will be the most important event in its history. Here’s what will happen next:

• If SMCI posts strong earnings and reassures investors on its accounting issues, the stock could skyrocket past $60 in a matter of days.
• If earnings disappoint, or if management dodges the tough questions, expect a bloodbath down to $25 or lower.

The entire AI market is watching. Traders are loading up call options. Shorts are sharpening their knives. The tension is real.

This will be a career-defining trade for many investors—and the ones who get it right will be the ones who understand both risk and reward.

Marathon Money’s Prediction: Where Will SMCI Be at the End of February 2025?

We’ve run through every possible outcome. Here’s our final call:

Best-Case Scenario: $65+

If SMCI crushes earnings, reassures investors, and rides the AI wave higher, expect a move past $65 as shorts get squeezed and institutions start buying in.

Worst-Case Scenario: $25-$30

If earnings disappoint, or if regulatory issues escalate, SMCI will get hammered. With a DOJ investigation still active, the worst-case scenario is real.

Base Case: $48-$55 by February 29, 2025

Given the incredible AI growth story but ongoing accounting concerns, we predict SMCI will settle between $48 and $55 by the end of February 2025.

• AI tailwinds are too strong for the stock to collapse completely
• Accounting concerns will keep it from running past $70—yet
• Volatility will be extreme, with massive swings both ways

For traders, this will be one of the most exciting stocks to trade in 2025.

Final Verdict: The Ultimate High-Stakes AI Bet

Super Micro Computer is not for the weak. This is a stock that will either make people rich—or wipe them out completely.

• If you can stomach risk, buying under $40 could be the best trade of 2025.
• If you want safety, wait until the earnings report confirms whether the accounting issues are real.
• Either way, this stock will be a battleground. Expect war.

Our call? High-risk buy, with a $48-$55 price target by the end of February.

For those willing to bet big, the rewards could be massive. But in a stock like this, fortune favors the bold—and the prepared.