Trade Thesis Report
Company: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Instrument: Long-Dated Options (Exp. Oct 2025)
Analyst: Marathon Money Research Team
Market Context
Apple’s stock has dropped hard and lost investors a lot of money. But history shows Apple always finds a way to bounce back. The company has strong products, steady cash flow, and one of the best brand names in the world. When Apple is weak, that often means a buying opportunity.
Option Snapshot
- Last Price: $1.54
- Day Range: $0.77 – $1.66
- Previous Close: $0.90
- Volume (Today): 9,620 contracts
- Open Interest: 33,505 contracts
- Bid / Ask: $1.54 x $1.58
- Contract Range (All-Time): $0.33 – $23.25
- Strike price $250 OCT 24 2025
This contract has strong trading volume and tight spreads, which means it’s liquid and easy to get in and out of.
Trade Thesis
We believe this is a chance to profit from Apple’s recovery using options instead of buying the stock. Options cost less than stock and can pay out a lot more if Apple’s price moves up.
Right now, the option sits at $1.54, which is in our buy zone. The trade is attractive because the downside is limited to the premium paid, while the upside return could be 60–70% or more if Apple recovers.
Trade Parameters
| Parameter | Details |
|---|---|
| Buy Zone | $1.50 – $1.55 |
| Profit Target | $2.00 – $2.25 |
| Stop Loss | Exit below $1.10 |
| Time Horizon | Through October 2025 |
Position Sizing Guidance (Small Account Examples)
Each option contract costs about $154 (since options are priced per share ×100).
| Account Size | 20% Risk Allocation | Contracts (20% Rule) | Practical Play (Min. 1 Contract) | Approx. Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250 | $50 | 0 (too small) | 1 contract* | ~$154 |
| $500 | $100 | 0 (too small) | 1 contract* | ~$154 |
| $1,000 | $200 | 1 contract | 1 contract | ~$154 |
| $1,500 | $300 | 1 contract | 1 contract | ~$154 |
| $2,000 | $400 | 2 contracts | 2 contracts | ~$308 |
| $3,000 | $600 | 3 contracts | 3 contracts | ~$462 |
Note: The 20% allocation guideline is a discipline rule to prevent overexposure. Traders with very small accounts ($250–$500) cannot strictly follow the 20% rule here, but may still choose to participate with a single contract, accepting higher relative risk.
Risk Factors
- Apple could stay weak longer than expected.
- Tech stocks in general could fall, pulling Apple lower.
- If Apple doesn’t recover soon enough, time decay will eat into the option’s value.
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