Our last play was an Apple call option, and it’s already up 135%. This is exactly why we focus on disciplined entries and defined-risk setups — the right plays can more than double your money.
Company: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Instrument: Call Option (Exp. Nov 21, 2025)
As of: September 16, 2025 (≈66 days to expiration)
Analyst: Marathon Money Research Team
Market Context
SMCI sits at the center of AI server demand. The chart shows a gap between $47 and $56; gaps tend to fill. The $50 level is the midpoint “bridge,” giving a clear technical target.
Option Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Option Type | Call |
| Strike | $50 |
| Bid / Ask | $3.45 × $3.55 |
| Volume (Today) | 754 contracts |
| Bid Size | 1,041 |
| Implied Volatility | 67% |
Notes: $50 has better liquidity than lower nearby strikes ($49–$46), which currently show thin volume.
Trade Thesis
We are targeting the $50 Call because it lines up with the $47–$56 gap and has superior liquidity. The setup is defined-risk (premium paid) with upside if SMCI pushes into the gap.
Trade Parameters
| Parameter | Details |
|---|---|
| Buy Zone | Buy under $3.00 (ideal entry ~$2.90 per contract) |
| Profit Target | $5.50 – $6.00 |
| Stop Loss | Exit if premium falls below $2.00 |
| Time Horizon | Through Nov 21, 2025 (≈66 days) |
| Sell Discipline | Scale out: take 50% around $5.50, exit remainder by $6.00 or no later than ~5–10 days before expiration if targets aren’t reached |
Position Sizing Guidance (uses $2.90 entry ≈ $290/contract)
We use a 20% max allocation guideline for speculative trades, and also show a practical minimum of 1 contract for small accounts.
| Account Size | 20% Allocation | Contracts (20% Rule) | Practical Minimum | Approx. Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250 | $50 | 0 | Not possible | — |
| $500 | $100 | 0 | 1 contract* | ~$290 |
| $1,000 | $200 | 0 | 1 contract* | ~$290 |
| $1,500 | $300 | 1 | 1 contract | ~$290 |
| $2,000 | $400 | 1 | 1 contract | ~$290 |
| $3,000 | $600 | 2 | 2 contracts | ~$580 |
*Small accounts ($500–$1,000) exceed the 20% guideline with 1 contract—higher relative risk, still capped at the premium paid.
Projected Payoff (at $2.90 entry)
Targets reflect your sell zone. Percent returns are computed off the $2.90 cost basis.
| Contracts Held | Cost Basis | Value at $5.50 | Value at $6.00 | Profit ($) | Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $290 | $550 | $600 | $260 – $310 | ~90% – ~107% |
| 2 | $580 | $1,100 | $1,200 | $520 – $620 | ~90% – ~107% |
| 3 | $870 | $1,650 | $1,800 | $780 – $930 | ~90% – ~107% |
If you prefer a 60–70% take-profit window at a $2.90 entry, that corresponds to roughly $4.64–$4.93 on the contract.
Risk Factors
- Gap Risk: The $47–$56 gap may not fill before expiration.
- Time Decay (Theta): With ~66 days left, decay accelerates; entries above target or delays reduce odds.
- Volatility (Vega): IV is 67%—elevated. A volatility drop can compress premiums even if shares are flat.
- Position Size Risk: More contracts = more dollars at risk; sizing amplifies both gains and losses.
- Execution Risk: Chasing above $3.00 worsens risk/reward; use limit orders and respect the stop.
Analyst View
This is a call option strategy with clear levels: buy under $3.00 (ideal ~$2.90), target $5.50–$6.00, stop <$2.00. The $50 strike sits at the center of the chart gap and currently shows the best liquidity. For small accounts, a single contract provides exposure; larger accounts can scale prudently within the 20% guideline. Discipline on entries and exits is critical given the short runway and IV profile.
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