I Bought Puts on SpaceX.
Yeah, I Know.
Before you come at me — I get it. It feels wrong. But this isn’t about betting against Elon. It’s about reading a float expansion event that the market hasn’t fully priced yet.
Look, before you come at me in the comments — I know. I KNOW. Betting against SpaceX feels like betting against the future itself. I sat with this before I pulled the trigger. But I’m not betting against Elon Musk. I’m betting against a financial instrument at a very specific moment in time. And right now, that moment looks really, really interesting.
SpaceX IPO’d on June 8th at $135 a share. The stock ran all the way up to $221 on pure euphoria — because of course it did. It’s SpaceX. Everyone wanted a piece. But here’s what most retail investors aren’t paying attention to: the float at IPO was approximately 4.5% of outstanding shares. That’s it.
The reason the stock ran is because there was almost nothing available to buy. Classic scarcity premium. That scarcity is about to end. Violently.
Part One The Unlock Schedule
SpaceX has one of the most unusual staggered lockup schedules I’ve ever seen. This isn’t a traditional 180-day cliff. It’s a slow, relentless drip of selling pressure across seven separate events — all of them hitting before my January 15, 2027 expiration.
Musk’s approximately 46% stake is on an extended 366-day lockup. He cannot sell a single share until June 12, 2027 — well after my expiration. The single largest shareholder is completely locked out of this window.
This slightly reduces the absolute worst-case scenario. But it doesn’t change what the other insiders can do — and what they can do is substantial.
Part Two The Trade — And Why $25 Isn’t The Point
I bought put options on SpaceX (SPCX). Strike price $25. Expiration January 15, 2027. 12 contracts. Average cost $0.18 per contract.
My total risk on this trade is $216.
Before you say it — yes, I know $25 is a long way from $168. I’m not necessarily counting on SpaceX hitting $25. That’s not the trade. Here’s what the trade actually is:
The moment this stock breaks below $100, my contract premium explodes.
Right now $25 feels impossible, so nobody is paying for these puts. The premium is basically zero. But when the August unlock hits and institutions start repricing downside risk — when the stock drops from $168 to $130, then $110, then maybe $90 — suddenly a $25 strike in January doesn’t look so crazy anymore.
Fear gets priced in. Implied volatility spikes. And my $0.18 contracts start looking very different. I don’t need SpaceX to collapse. I need fear. And fear starts the moment that August unlock hits and the stock cracks $100.
The stock has already dropped from $221 to $168. The unlocks haven’t even started yet.
Part Three Potential Outcomes — The Quick Math
These are rough estimates. Actual premium depends on implied volatility, time to expiration, and market conditions at the time. But here’s the framework:
Total capital at risk: $216. That’s it. This is a defined-risk, asymmetric bet built on a calendar that is already locked in.
Bear Case On My Own Trade — What Could Go Wrong
- SpaceX holds above $100 through all the unlocks. Premium stays near zero and the contracts expire worthless. I lose $216.
- Musk owns 46% and it’s locked — the biggest potential seller can’t participate in my window. This limits absolute downside for the stock.
- Retail and institutional demand absorbs the float expansion without a major price drop. Demand matches supply.
- SpaceX posts blowout earnings in Q2 or Q3, shifting sentiment back to euphoria and pushing the stock higher.
- My $25 strike may never be reached even in a severe selloff scenario. This trade relies on premium appreciation, not being in the money.
Bottom Line Why I Did This
I’m not rooting against SpaceX. I think what Elon has built is genuinely extraordinary. But extraordinary companies go through post-IPO price discovery just like everyone else. And when you combine a 4.5% starting float with a 900% float expansion hitting across seven separate events over five months — that’s not a bet against a company. That’s just math.
I put $216 at risk on a trade with a defined catalyst calendar, a clear thesis, and an expiration date that catches every single unlock event. The stock is already moving before the first unlock fires.
Sometimes the most interesting trades are the ones that feel uncomfortable. This one definitely did. Then I looked at the numbers again.
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